Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Site of cancelled condo tower up for sale - Houston Business Journal:
The joint venture was unraveled because Turnberry said it was unable to get a construction loan to build the residential tower.

Stan Creech of Stan Creech Properties Inc. was hired by Walton Street to market the land, which is west of Post Oak Boulevard, between Hidalgo and W. Alabama. The site is next to the three-acre Water Wall park that’s being acquired by the City of Houston.


The credit crunch hits Houston, in one of areas which are consider hottest (price cannot go down?).

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Niall Ferguson has something to say about American Empire.

He mention four deficits: financial, manpower, attention and legitimacy.
Interestingly, in I.O.U.S.A another four deficits are mentioned: budget deficit, savings, trade and leadership.

Niall Ferguson
Historian; Author; Professor, Harvard University
Uploaded on 01/04/2008

Description: An empire in denial.



What are the forces that have shaped the United States most?

Ferguson: Well the United States is a fantastic idea with extraordinary resource ___________. It’s a wonderful combination of the right institutions, the right culture, the right place, the right time. And it’s really not surprising that the United States has been so astonishingly successful as an economy, as a society, and as an empire. We know it’s not surprising because it was predicated before 1776 by many commentators, including disinterested commentators like Adam Smith who understood just what the potential was of this place. But we may be living through the end of something. Not necessarily the end of the United States. On the contrary. I think the United States has a huge future ahead of it. But perhaps the end of the American empire. In a book called “Colossus”, I provocatively gave the subtitle “The Rise and Fall of the American Empire”, I made the argument that the United States is a very odd thing. It’s an empire in denial. It behaves like an empire. It does all the classic things that empires do like invading Afghanistan and Mesopotamia, and it wields tremendous military power. It exports its culture to foreign peoples. It does the full range of imperial things except for one. It doesn’t celebrate its own existence. It denies it. It insists that it’s not engaged in an empire. And the only people who say that it is are actually a relatively small marginal group of people on the left. So the question I asked was: (A) Was the American empire a bad thing? And my conclusion was no. On balance it was better than all the available alternatives. It was certainly better than the other empires on offer in the mid 20th century. But the second question was well how long can it last in its present form? And my suggestion was not very long, because as a force for wielding power abroad, it’s constrained by three deficits. The three deficits are as follows.

The first is a financial deficit. This is an empire that relies increasingly on foreign capital to keep its economy going.

It is a manpower deficit. It cannot deploy at any time more than a quarter of a million troops overseas which is a laughably small number considering how many able bodied American men there are.

And it has an attention deficit. And indeed it’s the first empire to have attention deficit disorder because almost every imperial undertaking has to be over successfully within four years or it gets abandoned. And that’s not a function of some kind of cultural attention span problem. It’s a function of the American electoral system. Results have to be delivered very quickly. And no empire can deliver the transformation of Mesopotamia in a four year timeframe. I mean nobody could have done that. It would take you at least 40 years to turn Iraq into something resembling a stable society, and nobody at any point to my knowledge has anticipated a 40 year timeframe.

So we have a paradox. The American empire is economically stronger than any empire ever. In terms of its military lead over the competition, it’s out of sight. It was never a time when Britain was so far ahead of its competition. But despite these enormous advantages it’s very dysfunctional as an empire. It really can’t direct sufficient financial resources through its imperial undertakings. It never has enough men where they’re needed. And above all else its electorate loses interest in hot, poorer countries almost as soon as they’ve been occupied. And these are the reasons why I think that the American empire may be on the way down.

There’s a fourth deficit which I hadn’t fully appreciated when I wrote the book, but I’m happy to add it now; and that is the legitimacy deficit. Empires need above all else collaborators. You can’t run an empire on force alone. You need local indigenous support for it to be viable. And one of the most interesting failures of this most recent American administration has been its failure to preserve the legitimacy of American power which has collapsed to the extent the United States is more unpopular around the world than it has ever been, certainly since records began. And that makes it even harder to be a successful empire. If everybody hates you, it’s not going to last.

Recorded on: Oct 15 2007

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Finextra: Excel error leaves Barclays with unwanted Lehman assets

It is a costly "slip of mind."

But a junior associate reformatting the work was unaware that the original Excel document included hidden rows containing contracts that were marked with a "n" to signify they should not be part of the deal.

The document was posted on the Web site but the hidden cells had became visible when the employee globally re-sized the rows in the spreadsheet - without the original "n" designations.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Faked opening ceremony.

So predictable, when news broke that a 55-second CGIed footage was used in the Olympic opening ceremony, media, especially those based in Britain, where the next Olymic will be hosted, over-reacted by jumping on the non-story with exaggerated headlines "Faked fireworks!" or even "Faked Ceremony!"

Guys, the fireworks are real, millions of people witnessed the fantastic fireworks. Only the footage is CGIed.

The directors were stupid to choose CGI over camera, since behavior of the free and biased western news media are so predictable. More importantly, why can't you give us a fantastic show without fake? Yes, you can!

Just another one in the recent waves of biased coverage. It won't stop here.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

The Oil Drum | Food Sovereignty and the Collapse of Nations

The Oil Drum | Food Sovereignty and the Collapse of Nations

Mr. Gaidar doesn’t seem to suggest that the collapse of his country happened because a large portion of the population moved from the countryside into the cities and stopped growing their own grain. Instead he seems to place the bulk of the blame for collapse on economics- on the inability of the Soviets to feed themselves not because there weren't enough people growing grain in that country but because of their inability to buy enough grain from other people to feed themselves because of decreasing oil and natural gas revenues. The idea that the Soviet collapse was due in part to the fact that the Soviet Union gave up on its capacity for food self sufficiency (food sovereignty) in an effort to pursue industrialization seems absent from his theory.
What are the implications for China?
Why the U.S. government would insist on the corrupted ethanol policy sending food price sky high?
What cause the high oil price?

Thursday, July 10, 2008

From the oil drum

... plenty of lawyers go into politics, ... As a result politics tends to be framed by lawyer thinking, not engineer thinking. Politicians do not deal in facts. They deal in perception.


Well, we could expand the subjective of first sentence a little bit. Politics is not the only profession that cares more about perception than facts.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

A Star Is Made - New York Times

A Star Is Made - New York Times

A star is made, but how to make? I need a manual.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Realclimate commented Freeman Dyson's global warming piece at NYB. I think the comment on "being contemptuous of bullshit" would be applicable to much broader issues.

4. Majority scientists are contemptuous of those in the minority who don’t believe in the dangers of climate change. I often find myself contemptuous of efforts to misrepresent science to a lay audience. The target audience of denialism is the lay audience, not scientists. It's made up to look like science, but it's PR. We have documented Lindzen’s tortured and twisted representation of the science to non-scientists here and here. If Lindzen had a credible argument to support his gut feeling (and apparently Dyson’s), I can promise that I for one would take it seriously. I’ve got kids at home whose future I worry about. If Lindzen were right, no one would be happier about that than me. But I do get contemptuous of bullshit.

Friday, May 16, 2008

It is clear that the primary season coverage is closer to American Idol than any serious discussion. Now I doubt All Things Considered might be something worse than propagada - propaganda dressed up as journalism. It becomes clear when they reported some stories I felt personally related to - the earthquake in China. In their latest blog entry, they repeated their hints that teachers' request of the students to stay killed them. They did not bother to point out that the teachers are just following the standard guidelines. Easily, someone defense them by pointing out that they were merely quoting others. It is so typical in All Things Considered. Hiding in the shelter of quoting others, they abondan the responsibilities of fact-checking. What to quote, what not to? This could so easily be manipulated.

They do have some nice pieces though.

Friday, April 18, 2008

American Idol vs. American President ?
Last night, I was watching the 12th season of America's Next President, well, I have to admit I scrolled to America's next top model during commercials, until American Idol began on Fox.

Which is a better TV show? The winner is in. America voted, "American Idol, you are safe!"

I won't be surprised if this year no candidate could win the popular votes against the Idol. Bush did not in 2004. Obama had a chance, but I won't bet on it.

Maybe it is healthy to keep voters' hope low.

Friday, April 04, 2008

Scientific American: The Expert Mind

Scientific American: The Expert Mind

Highlights
- Ericsson argues that what matters is not experience per se but "effortful study," which entails continually tackling challenges that lie just beyond one's competence.
- Simon coined a psychological law of his own, the 10-year rule, which states that it takes approximately a decade of heavy labor to master any field. Even child prodigies, such as Gauss in mathematics, Mozart in music and Bobby Fischer in chess, must have made an equivalent effort, perhaps by starting earlier and working harder than others.

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Boyden, E. S. "How to Think." Ed Boyden's Blog. Technology Review. 11/13/07. (http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/boyden/21925/).

How to Think - Managing brain resources in an age of complexity

A few highlights.
Synthesize new ideas constantly.
Make contingency maps. Draw all the things you need to do on a big piece of paper, and find out which things depend on other things. Then, find the things that are not dependent on anything but have the most dependents, and finish them first.

And most importantly:
Make your mistakes quickly. You may mess things up on the first try, but do it fast, and then move on. Document what led to the error so that you learn what to recognize, and then move on. Get the mistakes out of the way. As Shakespeare put it, "Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win, by fearing to attempt."

Friday, February 22, 2008

Economics Blog : Negative Feedback on Economy's Negative Feedback Loops

This is funny, what is positive, and what is negative.

Economics Blog : Negative Feedback on Economy's Negative Feedback Loops

Why WSJ cannot simply admit that they have made a mistake? They have to cite others' mistakes to prove that they are correct?

The Stimulus Strategy: Financial Page: The New Yorker

In the Latest issue of the New Yorker, James Surowiecki cited Charles Perrow's Normal Accident.” to explain the bond market turmoil.

It is interesting to see that a journalist cited an investigation of engineering systems by a sociologist to explain the financial market. Well, if we check the number of former engineers and sociologists working on the Street, it might not be surprising.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Seven Rules for Reporting Polls and Research Results

A nice post at STATS.

My favorite is the 7th.

Thinking is hard. That explains a lot, not only stats, or news.

Monday, February 04, 2008

What is the difference between super Tuesday and Super-bowl?
Not much, I think. Once a scientist pointed out we do not have a President trained in science and tech yet, but we have presidents from showbiz. To the reporters / journalists, what is difference in reporting super-bowl and super Tuesday. All we need is a close match and excited fans. If there is none, we will create it, at least make it appear so.

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Last month I bought a copy of personal finance software from the company recently propose to buy Yahoo. The activation did not work. There is no response when I press any button in the activation dialog box. A google search showed others have seen this on Vista, and it was possibly caused by the security mechanism. Disabling the security did not work for me, and I have to give up until I saw similar failure when I install Abode Reader. No response during the license dialog. A post at Abode forum suggest register vbscript and jscript again. It works.

Lesson: I might have jumped too early for Vista. Upgrade might not mean the definitions you would find in a dictionary.
I have not updating this blog for a while. Let's do it again.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

On January 8, 2008, Forbes Investor Advisory Institute hosted a Financial Round Table discussion among several leading investment authorities. From the Roundtable, hosted by Wally Forbes, here's an excerpt from Douglas Cohen, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley: