Mankiw on Data and Model: link
[quote]
Greenspan on Data and Models
Michael Kinsley reviews Alan Greenspan's book (which I have not yet read). This passage from the review caught my eye:
You gotta love a guy whose idea of an important life lesson is: “I have always argued that an up-to-date set of the most detailed estimates for the latest available quarter is far more useful for forecasting accuracy than a more sophisticated model structure.” Words to live by.

Mike thinks Alan is being hopelessly geeky here. But I think Alan is talking to geeks like me, and also those who used to work for him on the staff of the Federal Reserve.
Modern macroeconomists have spent a lot of effort trying to develop better models of the economy for forecasting and policy analysis. Just look at any issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics or the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Alan seems to be saying that our efforts have, to some degree, been misdirected. Better monetary policy, he suggests, is more likely to follow from better data than from better models. Relatively little modern macro has been directed at improving data sources. Perhaps that is a mistake. [/quote]

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal

What’s a bank? The conventional old-style definition is that a bank is an entity that (a) takes deposits and (b) makes loans.

Delong: I would say this: I think a bank is something (a) takes deposits, (b) provides loans, (c) pretends to its depositors that their money (its liabilities) are more liquid than its assets, (d) collects net interest as a result, and (e) gets away with it almost all the time.

Mankiw's Life as a Student

Mankiw's Life as a Student

[quote] Many econ grad students at Harvard, maybe most, are stronger in math than I am. In recent years, some of my coauthors (such as Ricardo Reis and Matthew Weinzierl) have been Harvard students with strong technical skills. My comparative advantage in the coauthorial quid pro quo is based on experience, intuition, writing skills, and a pretty good nose for interesting questions. [/quote]

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/03/my-father-is-darth-vader.html

"The fundamental ideas of this civilization, as Virgil said, were Greek; but later ages knew Greek ideas largely in their Latin form, and the Romans went on to add much of their own. Historians often compare the Romans to the Americans as being solid, hard-headed men, who were weak in forming abstract theories but strong in practical skills."

-- The Ancient Romans; by Chester G. Starr; p.3

"Real history is the slow-crawl study of small changes, from clan loyalties to price ratios -- gradually shifting tectonic plates that suddenly erupt into visible mountains. We see the peaks, but the movement, not the mountain is the story."
-- Slaughterhouse; by Adam Gopnik, New Yorker; Feb, 12 2007, p.82

Which direction is China going? Collapse? Next superpower?

Debate.
Commentary Essay

Prospect Debate

A so-called expert who does not know (or believe) he is saying.